* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/04/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 80 75 73 70 66 61 56 51 42 33 23 DIS V (KT) LAND 85 80 75 73 70 66 61 56 51 42 33 23 DIS V (KT) LGEM 85 79 74 71 68 65 62 58 53 46 38 30 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 10 11 12 15 14 27 36 49 52 58 59 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 0 1 4 6 7 3 -1 2 -2 -6 SHEAR DIR 165 193 211 237 253 271 236 240 228 226 228 233 234 SST (C) 26.3 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.3 25.9 25.8 25.7 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 129 127 129 129 129 130 129 129 126 122 121 120 118 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 51 51 51 48 46 43 41 43 39 39 37 37 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 21 21 21 21 19 19 19 16 15 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 64 53 49 52 52 56 52 44 29 25 5 -3 -25 200 MB DIV 21 0 -5 -2 5 3 11 24 31 21 23 -3 3 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 1 2 3 6 13 12 15 12 6 LAND (KM) 1612 1450 1288 1158 1028 809 650 537 487 498 586 702 802 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 19.9 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.3 20.7 21.5 22.6 23.9 25.5 27.1 28.6 LONG(DEG W) 139.4 141.0 142.5 143.8 145.0 147.1 148.7 150.1 151.4 152.5 153.3 154.4 155.6 STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 13 12 10 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 1 3 4 4 5 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -13. -17. -21. -24. -26. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -9. -14. -20. -27. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -5. -4. -2. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -10. -12. -17. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -12. -15. -19. -24. -29. -34. -43. -52. -62. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 19.7 139.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/04/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.03 0.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.53 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.02 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.19 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 698.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.03 -0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.64 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.50 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 12.3% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.2% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/04/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX