* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/04/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 71 76 80 81 83 80 78 76 72 64 60 54 V (KT) LAND 65 71 76 80 81 83 80 78 76 72 64 60 54 V (KT) LGEM 65 71 76 80 81 81 77 71 64 56 50 45 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 13 14 15 16 11 13 9 6 2 0 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 8 7 5 2 5 7 2 0 -1 -1 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 57 60 52 53 43 39 58 48 54 53 84 359 276 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.5 28.0 27.2 25.9 25.3 25.4 25.3 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 156 156 155 150 145 137 124 117 118 117 116 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -51.6 -52.2 -52.1 -52.5 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 65 62 60 60 58 54 55 52 48 46 42 41 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 23 25 25 27 26 26 26 25 21 21 17 850 MB ENV VOR 7 12 19 35 39 36 44 48 50 51 34 23 12 200 MB DIV 24 19 24 37 22 4 19 -10 20 7 3 4 -8 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 -1 -2 -10 -2 -6 -6 -4 1 -1 5 LAND (KM) 889 945 1005 1069 1131 1275 1418 1550 1734 1933 2059 1818 1551 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 16.8 16.9 17.0 17.0 17.4 18.0 18.7 19.6 20.5 21.3 21.9 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 115.5 116.4 117.2 118.3 119.3 121.7 123.9 126.5 129.5 132.3 134.9 137.5 140.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 11 11 12 14 14 13 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 18 13 11 11 5 4 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 9.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 1. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 4. 7. 6. 7. 8. 7. 2. 1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 15. 16. 18. 15. 13. 11. 7. -1. -5. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 16.8 115.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/04/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.46 4.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 6.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.40 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.09 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.31 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.89 5.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 347.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.47 -2.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.66 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 24.2% 27.5% 26.6% 19.0% 13.4% 18.3% 15.4% 0.0% Logistic: 13.7% 16.5% 10.1% 7.2% 1.4% 6.1% 1.5% 0.2% Bayesian: 2.0% 5.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 13.3% 16.6% 12.4% 8.8% 5.0% 8.1% 5.6% 0.1% DTOPS: 39.0% 43.0% 31.0% 26.0% 16.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/04/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX