* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/04/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 70 67 65 63 60 57 53 49 40 32 23 17 V (KT) LAND 75 70 67 65 63 60 57 53 49 40 32 23 17 V (KT) LGEM 75 69 65 62 60 56 55 52 47 39 32 26 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 11 8 12 11 18 26 38 46 51 54 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 4 6 2 8 8 4 0 5 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 204 220 233 237 249 263 229 226 209 223 224 231 236 SST (C) 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.1 25.8 25.8 25.7 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 127 129 129 130 130 130 129 128 124 121 121 119 116 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -51.8 -51.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.1 -52.7 -53.2 -53.7 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 53 52 49 47 45 44 45 44 42 40 38 34 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 23 22 22 21 22 21 20 17 15 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 58 60 61 58 65 60 61 47 38 21 5 2 -2 200 MB DIV 7 4 9 18 5 13 19 31 34 15 -2 11 -5 700-850 TADV 1 -1 0 2 0 2 4 14 16 18 17 9 2 LAND (KM) 1444 1303 1162 1048 933 728 597 520 515 541 621 726 822 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.0 20.1 20.2 20.2 20.4 21.0 21.9 23.2 24.6 26.1 27.5 28.8 LONG(DEG W) 141.0 142.4 143.7 144.8 145.9 147.9 149.3 150.5 151.6 152.7 153.8 154.7 155.6 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 11 10 10 8 7 7 9 9 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 3 4 5 5 6 4 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -15. -22. -29. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -3. -4. -8. -11. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -10. -12. -15. -18. -22. -26. -35. -43. -52. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 19.9 141.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/04/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.12 0.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.48 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.03 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.22 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.76 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 596.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.16 -0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.54 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.48 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 15.7% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 5.3% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/04/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX