* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/04/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 78 80 80 81 78 77 74 68 62 56 52 V (KT) LAND 70 74 78 80 80 81 78 77 74 68 62 56 52 V (KT) LGEM 70 74 78 79 79 77 74 68 62 56 50 46 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 15 15 18 17 13 12 11 5 1 4 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 5 4 2 5 3 0 -3 -1 -2 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 54 52 49 53 44 52 57 38 35 53 52 45 319 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.2 27.5 26.3 25.3 25.4 25.2 24.9 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 156 154 152 147 140 128 118 118 116 113 116 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 -52.4 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 60 57 57 54 54 53 49 45 43 42 41 40 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 24 25 25 25 27 27 29 28 25 23 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 16 17 30 36 40 39 62 61 61 42 39 5 4 200 MB DIV 14 26 26 16 13 28 17 12 1 -5 5 4 2 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -6 -1 -10 -10 0 -1 0 4 LAND (KM) 967 1032 1083 1148 1221 1377 1504 1668 1867 2035 1891 1627 1380 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.7 18.5 19.3 20.2 21.1 22.0 22.8 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 116.7 117.7 118.7 119.8 120.9 123.2 125.7 128.5 131.4 134.3 136.8 139.5 142.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 12 13 14 14 13 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 9 1 0 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 4. 7. 6. 10. 10. 6. 4. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 10. 10. 11. 8. 7. 4. -2. -8. -14. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 16.9 116.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/04/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.41 2.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.30 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.05 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.27 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 453.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.33 -1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.51 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.6% 25.1% 17.8% 15.5% 10.9% 14.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.6% 6.8% 4.1% 2.7% 0.8% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.1% 10.9% 7.3% 6.1% 3.9% 5.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 20.0% 11.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/04/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX