* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/04/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 71 67 64 63 61 57 51 45 36 26 19 DIS V (KT) LAND 75 71 67 64 63 61 57 51 45 36 26 19 DIS V (KT) LGEM 75 70 67 64 63 61 58 54 46 37 29 23 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 9 11 12 11 24 28 46 47 52 55 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 5 3 4 8 9 2 4 3 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 223 228 222 245 264 248 242 219 220 221 234 237 239 SST (C) 26.4 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.3 25.9 25.8 25.8 25.6 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 129 130 131 132 132 130 129 126 122 120 120 119 114 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 -51.7 -52.1 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 6 6 7 7 6 5 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 53 49 47 45 46 45 46 45 43 39 37 34 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 21 21 21 22 23 20 19 17 13 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR 72 76 70 70 66 68 57 39 34 6 0 -17 -25 200 MB DIV 21 22 31 9 13 6 26 43 34 25 -3 6 2 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 -1 1 5 6 18 16 18 13 7 1 LAND (KM) 1277 1152 1026 916 807 635 544 522 529 573 647 767 916 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 19.9 19.8 19.9 20.0 20.4 21.2 22.5 23.9 25.3 26.5 28.0 29.7 LONG(DEG W) 142.6 143.8 145.0 146.0 147.1 148.8 149.9 150.9 152.1 153.2 154.2 154.9 155.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 10 10 7 7 8 9 8 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 6 11 10 10 13 8 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -15. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -12. -18. -25. -32. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -3. -5. -8. -13. -15. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -12. -14. -18. -24. -30. -39. -49. -56. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 19.9 142.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/04/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.14 0.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.51 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.08 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.28 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.76 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 592.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.16 -0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.54 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.40 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.5% 17.0% 10.9% 9.8% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 5.8% 3.7% 3.3% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/04/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX