* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/04/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 67 65 63 64 60 57 50 45 37 27 19 DIS V (KT) LAND 70 67 65 63 64 60 57 50 45 37 27 19 DIS V (KT) LGEM 70 68 66 65 64 63 59 53 45 37 30 24 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 13 13 11 20 25 35 40 46 52 61 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 4 4 3 5 8 4 6 5 2 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 231 232 244 259 264 239 237 225 223 225 241 240 246 SST (C) 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.3 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.5 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 132 131 131 130 128 126 121 121 120 117 113 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.8 -51.7 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.9 -52.7 -53.2 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 5 6 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 49 47 45 46 45 45 44 43 42 37 37 35 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 20 21 23 22 22 19 18 16 13 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 73 68 65 66 71 59 53 39 25 6 -9 -26 -29 200 MB DIV 21 28 9 15 11 6 35 31 21 5 11 -7 -16 700-850 TADV 3 1 -1 0 3 5 13 13 18 18 8 6 1 LAND (KM) 1141 1026 911 822 734 587 509 502 536 600 687 782 877 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 19.8 19.7 19.8 19.9 20.6 21.5 22.7 24.2 25.7 27.0 28.3 29.4 LONG(DEG W) 143.9 145.0 146.1 147.0 147.8 149.3 150.4 151.3 152.3 153.4 154.5 155.3 155.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 8 8 7 7 8 9 9 8 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 12 14 13 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -14. -21. -28. -35. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 1. 0. 0. -3. -4. -7. -12. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -6. -10. -13. -20. -25. -33. -43. -51. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 19.8 143.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/04/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.19 1.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.44 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.10 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.26 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 568.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.19 -0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.61 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.44 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.8% 17.7% 12.1% 10.9% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 6.0% 4.1% 3.7% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 11.0% 6.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/04/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX