* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/04/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 107 108 105 101 92 84 72 65 58 49 45 40 V (KT) LAND 100 107 108 105 101 92 84 72 65 58 49 45 40 V (KT) LGEM 100 108 110 107 102 91 79 69 61 55 50 48 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 14 19 18 14 11 10 7 2 4 2 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 5 3 5 2 0 -1 -3 -4 -6 -6 -4 SHEAR DIR 46 48 48 40 52 53 51 31 61 100 37 231 338 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.3 27.6 26.6 25.6 25.6 25.5 25.3 25.5 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 152 150 148 141 131 121 121 119 117 119 119 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 -52.2 -52.4 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 56 53 51 50 49 46 43 41 36 35 35 37 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 27 27 27 27 29 27 26 24 21 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 34 37 37 37 39 60 64 71 60 56 32 30 18 200 MB DIV 17 26 2 -5 11 -5 2 -2 5 1 0 8 -5 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -5 -7 -7 -2 -10 -8 -4 3 -2 3 -2 LAND (KM) 1101 1169 1244 1318 1398 1528 1689 1890 2070 1856 1593 1349 1135 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.0 17.0 17.2 17.4 18.2 19.0 19.8 20.7 21.5 22.0 22.5 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 118.7 119.8 120.9 122.1 123.2 125.7 128.5 131.4 134.3 137.1 139.7 142.2 144.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 12 13 14 14 14 13 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 10 4 1 4 3 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -9. -17. -25. -30. -35. -38. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -9. -6. -2. 1. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 8. 11. 12. 10. 7. 4. 1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 1. 1. -3. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 8. 5. 1. -8. -16. -28. -35. -42. -51. -55. -60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 16.9 118.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/04/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.11 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.26 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.02 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 758.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.64 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.4% 1.6% 2.1% 1.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.1% 0.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 11.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/04/18 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 12 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX