* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/05/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 68 67 67 65 61 56 49 44 31 22 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 70 68 67 67 65 61 56 49 44 31 22 16 DIS V (KT) LGEM 70 68 67 65 63 60 55 48 40 32 25 20 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 10 12 12 25 25 41 44 46 55 57 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 4 4 3 8 9 0 3 7 -2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 239 249 266 255 243 241 219 228 221 229 236 244 256 SST (C) 26.7 26.8 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.0 25.8 25.7 25.7 25.4 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 132 131 130 128 127 123 121 119 119 116 113 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.6 -53.7 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 46 45 44 44 45 45 42 42 39 38 35 32 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 22 22 21 20 20 18 19 14 12 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR 63 61 58 64 58 51 34 22 2 3 -16 -21 -46 200 MB DIV 22 7 8 12 15 22 41 31 28 0 5 -13 -16 700-850 TADV -1 -2 0 2 6 9 15 15 18 16 10 11 7 LAND (KM) 1016 916 817 734 653 551 506 524 567 646 721 824 931 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 19.8 19.7 20.0 20.2 21.1 22.1 23.4 24.9 26.3 27.4 28.7 30.0 LONG(DEG W) 145.1 146.1 147.0 147.8 148.6 149.8 150.8 151.7 152.7 153.7 154.6 155.3 155.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 14 13 9 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -11. -18. -25. -32. -39. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -4. -12. -15. -16. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -5. -9. -14. -21. -26. -39. -48. -54. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 19.8 145.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/05/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.19 1.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.47 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.09 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.24 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 584.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.17 -0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.90 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.50 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.7% 19.8% 14.2% 12.5% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 6.8% 4.9% 4.2% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 13.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/05/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX