* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/05/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 114 114 111 107 98 85 76 67 62 53 49 48 V (KT) LAND 110 114 114 111 107 98 85 76 67 62 53 49 48 V (KT) LGEM 110 114 113 108 102 90 80 70 63 58 55 53 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 16 15 11 11 8 6 2 2 2 5 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 5 6 4 2 0 -2 0 -3 -2 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 48 43 36 47 44 35 58 29 102 6 127 272 243 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.3 26.1 25.6 25.5 25.2 25.2 25.5 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 151 149 146 139 126 121 120 116 115 119 120 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -51.5 -51.9 -51.4 -51.8 -51.9 -52.4 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 54 53 50 50 51 46 40 36 30 34 35 36 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 27 28 28 28 26 26 25 25 23 22 23 850 MB ENV VOR 35 40 36 44 50 60 64 76 72 54 45 30 24 200 MB DIV 33 17 4 21 28 16 34 10 0 2 7 -2 9 700-850 TADV -2 -6 -9 -8 -3 -7 -1 -10 -1 -1 2 -4 1 LAND (KM) 1177 1242 1313 1391 1476 1596 1779 1995 1999 1748 1541 1314 1087 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 16.9 17.0 17.3 17.5 18.4 19.3 20.2 21.3 22.1 22.5 22.7 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 119.6 120.7 121.8 123.0 124.2 126.8 129.8 132.8 135.7 138.2 140.3 142.6 145.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 12 14 15 15 13 11 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 5 0 3 3 5 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -7. -15. -25. -33. -40. -45. -48. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -6. -2. 2. 6. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 4. 1. -3. -12. -25. -34. -43. -48. -57. -61. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 16.7 119.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/05/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.38 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.01 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.28 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 827.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.63 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.1% 1.6% 2.4% 1.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.0% 0.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/05/18 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 18 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX