* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/05/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 81 81 80 77 70 59 50 40 28 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 81 81 80 77 70 59 50 40 28 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 80 82 82 80 77 69 60 49 39 29 23 19 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 12 12 17 28 37 46 51 55 60 54 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 4 4 6 6 4 -1 2 -3 -2 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 253 274 268 241 228 227 218 228 227 235 240 248 264 SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.3 25.9 25.8 25.8 25.6 25.3 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 131 130 130 129 126 122 121 120 118 115 111 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -53.2 -53.6 -53.8 -54.2 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 44 44 44 44 44 43 40 41 39 38 35 31 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 20 20 21 18 17 15 12 10 10 7 850 MB ENV VOR 61 56 54 53 56 36 28 11 6 -17 -35 -47 -87 200 MB DIV -1 2 12 17 6 30 25 15 19 -7 -20 -4 -28 700-850 TADV -2 0 3 5 2 12 12 16 12 9 4 7 14 LAND (KM) 911 817 723 641 563 490 479 506 581 678 745 843 959 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 19.8 19.8 20.1 20.4 21.5 22.6 24.0 25.6 26.9 27.9 29.1 30.4 LONG(DEG W) 146.1 147.0 147.9 148.7 149.5 150.6 151.5 152.5 153.6 154.5 155.2 155.8 156.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 7 8 9 9 7 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 12 14 13 10 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -6. -10. -14. -17. -20. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -12. -18. -25. -32. -40. -46. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 2. -1. -3. -6. -11. -14. -13. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -3. -10. -21. -30. -40. -52. -63. -68. -77. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 19.7 146.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/05/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.09 0.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.30 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.09 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.69 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 680.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.05 -0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.47 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.2% 17.9% 13.9% 12.5% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.9% 6.1% 4.7% 4.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 15.0% 9.0% 7.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/05/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX