* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/05/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 97 94 91 88 82 75 68 60 55 52 49 48 V (KT) LAND 100 97 94 91 88 82 75 68 60 55 52 49 48 V (KT) LGEM 100 98 95 90 86 78 71 64 59 54 51 51 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 17 17 15 13 11 8 6 2 3 1 5 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 3 2 0 0 -3 -2 -2 -3 -1 -4 2 SHEAR DIR 27 36 38 41 44 48 45 41 17 2 228 306 258 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.8 26.8 25.7 25.6 25.5 25.3 25.6 25.8 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 149 146 143 133 122 120 119 117 120 122 122 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -52.1 -52.1 -52.8 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 4 3 4 4 6 700-500 MB RH 52 49 50 50 49 46 39 35 32 33 36 35 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 27 28 27 28 28 27 24 23 23 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR 37 37 45 50 53 64 83 71 74 57 59 46 47 200 MB DIV 21 17 35 25 1 13 31 8 -10 3 4 4 8 700-850 TADV -7 -9 -8 -4 -4 -11 -5 -1 -1 1 2 -2 1 LAND (KM) 1246 1317 1396 1483 1545 1701 1895 2066 1907 1643 1363 1119 912 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.7 19.7 20.6 21.4 21.9 22.2 22.5 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 120.7 121.9 123.1 124.3 125.6 128.4 131.4 134.1 136.6 139.2 142.0 144.5 146.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 13 14 15 12 13 13 13 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 1 3 3 6 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -4. -11. -19. -27. -32. -36. -39. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -7. -4. 0. 4. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -12. -18. -25. -32. -40. -45. -48. -51. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 16.8 120.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/05/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.07 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.25 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.02 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.28 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 798.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.72 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/05/18 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 49 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX