* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/05/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 105 105 101 95 80 65 52 40 36 25 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 100 105 105 101 95 80 65 52 40 36 25 17 DIS V (KT) LGEM 100 106 105 101 95 82 69 56 43 35 28 23 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 11 16 24 25 39 41 52 49 53 55 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 8 5 9 2 7 0 3 1 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 282 274 256 231 232 218 227 223 230 231 244 258 278 SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.2 25.9 25.9 25.9 25.7 25.4 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 130 130 130 128 125 122 121 121 118 115 114 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 43 44 43 45 45 43 43 40 38 35 34 31 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 20 21 21 20 19 17 15 16 12 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR 61 56 52 58 47 38 30 -2 -15 -21 -28 -49 -72 200 MB DIV 2 16 18 4 4 42 16 22 0 15 -9 -22 -26 700-850 TADV 0 2 3 1 4 15 13 19 14 8 10 9 8 LAND (KM) 796 707 619 556 498 456 471 505 568 648 723 797 870 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.7 19.9 20.3 20.7 21.7 23.0 24.4 25.7 26.8 27.8 28.8 29.8 LONG(DEG W) 147.2 148.0 148.9 149.5 150.2 151.1 152.0 153.0 154.1 154.9 155.5 156.2 157.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 10 8 9 6 5 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -16. -23. -30. -35. -39. -41. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -8. -13. -19. -22. -26. -29. -34. -40. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 8. 11. 12. 10. 7. 4. 1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -8. -14. -13. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 5. 1. -5. -20. -35. -48. -60. -64. -75. -83. -96. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 19.5 147.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/05/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.23 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.06 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.22 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 840.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.72 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 0.6% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/05/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX