* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/05/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 88 84 83 79 77 72 67 62 59 58 56 55 V (KT) LAND 95 88 84 83 79 77 72 67 62 59 58 56 55 V (KT) LGEM 95 89 85 81 78 72 67 62 58 54 53 53 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 12 11 9 9 8 1 1 0 3 3 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 0 1 -4 -5 1 -3 0 -2 0 5 SHEAR DIR 38 37 40 42 44 43 44 66 36 296 279 263 265 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.4 26.3 25.5 25.6 25.4 25.3 25.7 25.8 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 146 143 139 128 120 120 118 117 121 121 122 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -51.7 -51.9 -51.4 -51.9 -51.4 -51.9 -52.1 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 51 51 51 50 47 43 39 34 32 33 34 34 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 27 29 27 29 29 27 25 24 24 23 22 850 MB ENV VOR 36 44 48 55 58 52 74 73 71 60 58 59 50 200 MB DIV 12 32 38 20 6 28 13 10 -2 0 -3 -1 2 700-850 TADV -8 -7 -3 -5 -7 -6 -7 3 -1 4 -1 2 0 LAND (KM) 1313 1391 1476 1542 1611 1758 1954 2071 1815 1544 1276 1047 873 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.3 17.5 17.9 18.2 19.1 20.1 21.0 21.6 22.1 22.4 22.7 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 121.8 123.0 124.2 125.5 126.8 129.4 132.3 135.0 137.5 140.2 142.9 145.3 147.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 13 12 12 12 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 3 5 5 5 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -4. -10. -17. -24. -29. -32. -35. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. 0. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 3. 3. 1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -11. -12. -16. -18. -23. -28. -33. -36. -37. -39. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 17.0 121.8 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/05/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.09 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.40 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.02 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.29 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 756.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.63 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/05/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX