* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL072018 09/05/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 21 19 19 20 25 29 33 36 32 29 22 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 12 13 10 11 20 31 41 43 38 52 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -5 -6 -6 -5 -4 -2 -4 0 2 -3 2 SHEAR DIR 310 321 329 332 334 292 253 252 250 266 258 259 242 SST (C) 28.1 27.6 27.1 26.8 26.5 25.8 25.1 24.5 23.9 23.3 22.6 22.9 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 138 130 123 120 116 109 103 99 96 94 91 93 92 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 108 102 98 96 90 86 83 82 82 80 81 80 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -54.4 -54.7 -54.7 -54.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 5 4 7 3 4 1 2 0 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 68 70 71 74 74 75 78 77 70 57 54 57 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 7 8 10 14 15 16 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR -34 1 -4 -2 11 -35 0 -21 4 -50 -17 -11 44 200 MB DIV 53 59 28 26 48 24 49 45 35 55 85 61 96 700-850 TADV 6 6 1 0 5 0 9 8 16 39 39 44 52 LAND (KM) -235 -296 -362 -407 -455 -533 -623 -723 -802 -906 -999 -914 -773 LAT (DEG N) 32.5 33.0 33.4 33.7 33.9 34.6 35.4 36.3 37.2 38.5 40.0 41.8 43.7 LONG(DEG W) 90.4 91.0 91.6 92.1 92.6 93.2 93.7 93.7 93.0 91.2 88.5 85.5 82.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 5 4 4 5 5 7 11 13 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):323/ 11 CX,CY: -6/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 696 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 6. 0. -8. -16. -25. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -9. -9. -6. -4. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -6. -5. 0. 4. 8. 11. 7. 4. -3. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 32.5 90.4 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072018 GORDON 09/05/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.34 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.65 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.28 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 39.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.89 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.1 28.4 to 141.4 0.45 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.34 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 10.4% 9.5% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 2.6% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 1.0% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 4.3% 3.5% 2.6% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072018 GORDON 09/05/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072018 GORDON 09/05/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 22 22 22 22 23 24 25 DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 16 16 16 16 17 18 19 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT