* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/05/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 101 98 92 84 71 55 41 32 28 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 101 98 92 84 71 55 41 32 28 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 100 103 100 94 88 74 60 46 36 28 22 17 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 17 22 22 32 41 45 47 54 55 53 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 8 6 8 4 3 5 1 2 -1 -3 4 SHEAR DIR 275 258 242 242 235 226 230 226 241 247 259 261 284 SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.5 26.1 26.0 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.7 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 129 129 130 128 123 122 124 122 120 118 117 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 44 43 44 46 46 42 43 40 38 35 33 29 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 22 22 21 21 18 15 13 13 10 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 58 50 60 52 48 34 22 2 -20 -23 -57 -77 -100 200 MB DIV 20 16 8 11 21 20 10 0 -11 -6 -21 -62 -31 700-850 TADV 4 2 3 6 10 15 17 12 10 5 7 3 7 LAND (KM) 712 634 556 499 448 408 425 451 502 564 616 678 751 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.7 19.9 20.3 20.7 21.9 23.1 24.2 25.3 26.4 27.3 28.1 28.9 LONG(DEG W) 148.0 148.8 149.5 150.1 150.7 151.8 152.7 153.6 154.8 155.9 156.9 157.6 158.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 8 7 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 9 10 9 6 6 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -16. -23. -30. -35. -38. -41. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -10. -15. -22. -26. -28. -32. -37. -42. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 7. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -8. -12. -12. -17. -20. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -2. -8. -16. -29. -45. -59. -68. -72. -82. -92.-102. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 19.5 148.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/05/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.14 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.06 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.25 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 832.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.77 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/05/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX