* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/05/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 79 77 74 73 68 66 62 57 53 51 51 49 V (KT) LAND 85 79 77 74 73 68 66 62 57 53 51 51 49 V (KT) LGEM 85 80 76 73 70 65 61 57 54 51 50 51 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 11 10 10 7 3 2 2 4 4 4 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 2 2 0 -2 -1 0 -2 -1 -4 4 2 SHEAR DIR 31 44 47 39 48 71 70 4 94 215 302 243 261 SST (C) 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.4 26.9 25.9 25.6 25.6 25.4 25.5 25.9 25.9 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 144 139 134 124 121 120 118 119 123 123 124 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -51.5 -52.0 -51.8 -52.5 -52.3 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 50 50 49 45 45 40 35 31 31 32 32 32 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 28 28 29 27 28 26 25 23 22 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR 46 50 52 54 53 66 67 77 62 70 54 60 43 200 MB DIV 18 33 9 -6 2 28 13 0 -5 -3 5 -4 -3 700-850 TADV -8 -4 -5 -7 -8 -6 0 -3 0 4 0 2 -4 LAND (KM) 1379 1469 1539 1599 1669 1845 2036 1948 1683 1432 1199 978 785 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.6 17.8 18.3 18.7 19.5 20.5 21.3 21.8 22.1 22.1 22.4 22.8 LONG(DEG W) 122.9 124.2 125.4 126.7 128.0 130.7 133.5 136.2 138.8 141.3 143.6 145.9 148.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 13 13 13 14 13 12 11 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -12. -17. -21. -24. -26. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -5. -4. -2. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 1. 0. -2. -5. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -8. -11. -12. -17. -19. -23. -28. -32. -34. -34. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 17.3 122.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/05/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.16 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.02 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 723.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.82 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/05/18 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 11 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX