* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL072018 09/06/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 25 26 28 29 35 37 36 33 28 25 20 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 28 28 29 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 28 28 29 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 12 10 8 7 13 27 41 48 39 47 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -6 -5 -6 -4 -5 -4 0 3 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 318 328 331 336 309 283 249 248 249 254 247 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.2 26.8 26.6 26.3 25.5 24.6 24.0 23.7 23.0 22.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 125 120 117 114 107 100 96 95 91 86 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 110 103 99 96 94 89 84 82 80 78 74 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.7 -54.6 -55.3 -54.2 -54.2 -53.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 5 4 7 7 2 5 0 2 0 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 69 73 73 74 76 74 72 62 56 53 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 8 10 7 10 11 14 17 17 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 4 7 17 -3 -22 -10 -27 -14 -35 -2 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 63 39 30 44 53 31 52 45 57 47 73 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 2 -1 4 3 3 6 4 16 24 32 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -286 -343 -404 -443 -480 -567 -702 -791 -853 -942 -999 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.9 33.3 33.7 33.9 34.1 34.9 36.1 37.1 38.0 39.0 40.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.8 91.3 91.9 92.3 92.8 93.5 93.8 93.0 91.4 90.1 89.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 4 5 6 7 7 7 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 738 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 5. -2. -10. -19. -24. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -1. -3. -2. -1. 1. 4. 4. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 10. 12. 11. 8. 3. 0. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 32.9 90.8 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072018 GORDON 09/06/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.73 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.04 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.31 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 56.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.87 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.42 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 14.4% 12.7% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 7.5% 3.6% 1.2% 0.4% 1.6% 0.9% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 7.3% 5.4% 3.4% 0.1% 0.5% 2.6% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072018 GORDON 09/06/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072018 GORDON 09/06/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 28 28 29 30 30 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 25 25 25 25 26 26 27 28 28 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 22 22 22 23 23 24 25 25 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 16 16 16 17 17 18 19 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT