* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/06/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 76 75 74 75 73 68 65 58 55 53 53 51 V (KT) LAND 80 76 75 74 75 73 68 65 58 55 53 53 51 V (KT) LGEM 80 75 72 70 69 66 62 58 55 52 52 53 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 7 9 9 8 2 3 4 3 3 7 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 2 0 -3 -2 1 0 -1 -3 -2 2 3 SHEAR DIR 64 71 68 68 63 61 120 54 90 286 266 256 252 SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.5 27.1 26.5 25.6 25.7 25.6 25.6 25.8 26.0 26.1 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 140 136 130 121 121 120 120 122 124 125 126 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -51.7 -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 50 50 47 45 43 38 32 29 27 28 28 31 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 25 25 26 27 25 24 22 21 20 21 19 850 MB ENV VOR 47 51 50 53 52 67 68 72 68 62 58 52 35 200 MB DIV 26 18 2 14 26 2 20 9 1 13 10 4 3 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -8 -8 -4 -6 6 -2 6 0 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 1459 1529 1596 1671 1754 1929 2083 1854 1577 1335 1096 877 679 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.8 18.1 18.5 18.9 19.9 20.7 21.2 21.5 21.8 22.0 22.3 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 124.0 125.3 126.5 127.9 129.2 131.9 134.5 137.1 139.8 142.2 144.6 146.9 149.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 3 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -5. -9. -14. -17. -19. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -5. -6. -5. -7. -12. -15. -22. -25. -27. -27. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 17.5 124.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/06/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.17 1.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.62 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.02 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.27 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.69 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 690.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.04 -0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.99 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.44 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 17.6% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 6.0% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/06/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX