* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/06/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 85 85 83 83 76 71 64 60 57 56 55 53 V (KT) LAND 85 85 85 83 83 76 71 64 60 57 56 55 53 V (KT) LGEM 85 84 83 82 79 72 66 62 59 58 58 60 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 8 10 8 4 3 3 1 5 5 6 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -2 -2 0 0 -1 0 -3 0 0 6 SHEAR DIR 67 46 54 74 65 53 8 14 261 328 259 275 215 SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.2 26.6 26.0 25.5 25.7 25.5 25.5 25.8 26.1 26.3 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 137 132 125 119 121 119 119 122 124 127 128 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -51.6 -51.9 -51.6 -52.1 -51.9 -52.5 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 5 5 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 49 47 47 45 40 35 33 31 29 29 29 29 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 27 25 27 25 25 24 22 22 22 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR 54 50 42 50 59 61 76 68 68 51 53 40 36 200 MB DIV 25 11 15 33 14 1 13 8 -17 14 11 19 16 700-850 TADV -5 -9 -7 -5 -7 3 0 3 3 -3 1 3 3 LAND (KM) 1517 1581 1650 1737 1834 2021 2019 1742 1471 1229 1010 795 576 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.2 18.4 18.9 19.4 20.4 21.0 21.5 22.0 22.1 21.8 21.9 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 125.2 126.4 127.5 129.0 130.5 133.2 135.5 138.2 140.9 143.3 145.4 147.6 150.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 13 15 15 12 12 12 12 11 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 5 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -4. -8. -13. -18. -22. -25. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -2. -2. -9. -14. -21. -25. -28. -29. -30. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 17.9 125.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/06/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.09 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.01 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.28 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 769.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/06/18 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 13 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX