* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/06/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 94 85 75 67 50 37 30 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 94 85 75 67 50 37 30 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 100 94 87 80 72 58 46 36 27 21 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 26 28 36 39 41 45 49 56 51 42 30 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 7 5 3 2 9 4 6 1 0 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 246 236 236 232 233 235 234 240 247 255 282 313 340 SST (C) 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.3 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.7 25.5 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 128 127 126 124 124 123 122 121 119 118 115 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.6 -54.1 -54.5 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 44 43 43 44 44 41 39 36 35 30 28 29 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 20 19 19 16 14 14 11 7 6 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 47 34 33 38 33 6 -10 -23 -44 -82 -93 -120 -127 200 MB DIV 14 24 19 6 20 15 -4 15 -19 -42 -25 -39 -2 700-850 TADV 3 8 10 13 14 13 13 7 5 4 2 4 3 LAND (KM) 493 452 421 408 402 395 432 489 547 612 703 813 961 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 21.0 21.4 21.9 22.4 23.5 24.6 25.7 26.7 27.6 28.5 29.5 30.6 LONG(DEG W) 150.2 150.8 151.3 151.8 152.3 153.5 154.7 156.0 157.1 158.1 158.7 160.1 161.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 6 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 4 3 2 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -17. -24. -30. -35. -39. -41. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -9. -15. -20. -29. -36. -40. -43. -45. -47. -48. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 8. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -3. -7. -8. -10. -16. -22. -24. -27. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -15. -25. -33. -50. -63. -70. -78. -86. -90. -95.-100. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 20.5 150.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/06/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.01 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.26 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 825.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 34.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.44 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/06/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX