* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/06/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 108 105 101 97 85 75 66 60 57 54 51 50 V (KT) LAND 105 108 105 101 97 85 75 66 60 57 54 51 50 V (KT) LGEM 105 108 106 100 92 81 73 67 64 63 63 63 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 1 3 2 3 3 8 10 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -3 -2 0 -1 0 -1 0 2 5 7 SHEAR DIR 43 58 55 57 58 20 16 47 285 258 255 223 233 SST (C) 27.5 27.0 26.4 25.9 25.6 25.6 25.5 25.4 25.8 26.0 26.1 26.3 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 140 135 129 124 120 120 119 118 122 124 124 126 128 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -51.5 -51.8 -51.5 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 700-500 MB RH 46 45 43 40 39 36 34 32 31 30 31 31 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 26 26 28 26 25 24 23 23 24 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR 54 54 54 56 59 57 71 67 50 45 43 39 51 200 MB DIV 17 13 35 6 -16 9 0 -1 1 13 3 17 -1 700-850 TADV -10 -10 -6 -5 -4 1 -2 6 -1 0 1 0 1 LAND (KM) 1596 1664 1741 1828 1920 2076 1865 1601 1345 1103 883 692 520 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.7 19.1 19.5 19.9 20.7 21.4 21.8 21.8 21.9 22.2 22.2 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 126.6 127.9 129.2 130.5 131.8 134.4 137.0 139.6 142.1 144.5 146.8 148.8 150.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -14. -21. -28. -35. -40. -44. -46. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 7. 4. 2. 0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 0. -4. -8. -20. -30. -39. -45. -48. -51. -54. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 18.2 126.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/06/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 999.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.80 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 0.7% 2.1% 0.6% 2.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/06/18 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 57 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX