* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/06/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 87 78 69 59 45 35 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 95 87 78 69 59 45 35 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 95 89 81 74 66 52 41 31 24 19 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 31 35 40 42 45 48 56 54 47 33 25 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 3 3 5 5 2 4 0 -2 4 0 6 SHEAR DIR 235 233 230 231 231 232 240 244 248 252 289 322 345 SST (C) 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.3 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.6 25.4 25.1 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 130 128 127 126 123 124 123 122 121 117 116 114 110 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -54.0 -54.2 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 42 41 41 43 43 39 38 36 34 29 28 30 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 21 20 20 18 15 15 12 9 9 6 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 36 29 33 31 20 -7 -6 -30 -49 -62 -96 -125 -116 200 MB DIV 23 17 -1 17 13 -1 -5 -12 -20 -45 -28 -61 17 700-850 TADV 10 10 9 15 12 11 6 5 2 1 4 5 0 LAND (KM) 472 443 423 417 417 427 486 539 623 707 804 923 1063 LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.6 22.0 22.6 23.1 24.2 25.3 26.3 27.4 28.4 29.4 30.5 31.6 LONG(DEG W) 150.6 151.2 151.7 152.3 152.8 154.0 155.3 156.3 157.0 157.7 158.5 159.9 161.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 7 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 3 4 3 2 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -15. -21. -27. -31. -35. -37. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -10. -17. -22. -31. -39. -44. -48. -49. -50. -50. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 11. 9. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 9. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -7. -12. -17. -19. -24. -25. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -17. -26. -36. -50. -60. -70. -79. -82. -87. -91. -97. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 21.1 150.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/06/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.01 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.25 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 780.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.77 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/06/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX