* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/06/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 113 113 109 102 90 80 68 60 55 52 49 46 V (KT) LAND 110 113 113 109 102 90 80 68 60 55 52 49 46 V (KT) LGEM 110 112 108 102 95 84 75 67 64 63 63 62 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 7 3 3 3 5 2 0 3 5 9 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 0 0 1 -1 -1 0 1 2 11 11 SHEAR DIR 38 73 66 62 29 347 19 130 24 251 235 213 234 SST (C) 27.1 26.6 26.1 25.7 25.7 25.8 25.5 25.6 26.1 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 136 131 126 121 121 122 119 120 125 127 127 128 129 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 47 43 40 41 39 34 31 30 29 28 29 31 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 26 27 28 26 24 25 22 21 21 21 21 19 850 MB ENV VOR 49 49 52 58 50 69 64 60 37 39 31 40 42 200 MB DIV 16 34 3 -26 -5 12 1 -3 22 16 19 19 -4 700-850 TADV -10 -7 -8 -6 0 3 2 8 -1 1 0 2 -2 LAND (KM) 1682 1757 1840 1931 2027 1998 1731 1475 1225 999 795 599 407 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.9 19.3 19.7 20.1 20.8 21.4 21.6 21.3 21.3 21.6 21.6 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 127.9 129.2 130.5 131.8 133.1 135.7 138.3 140.8 143.2 145.4 147.5 149.5 151.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 11 10 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 2 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 1 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -17. -25. -32. -39. -45. -49. -51. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. -1. -8. -20. -30. -42. -50. -55. -58. -61. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 18.4 127.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/06/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1064.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.59 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 0.8% 3.1% 1.0% 2.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 0.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/06/18 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 78 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX