* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/07/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 75 65 55 48 35 29 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 75 65 55 48 35 29 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 85 78 70 63 55 44 35 28 23 18 15 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 35 40 44 44 43 49 52 57 49 43 30 18 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 2 4 2 0 0 0 4 0 4 4 SHEAR DIR 231 230 232 233 233 243 245 247 251 263 291 316 346 SST (C) 26.6 26.4 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 25.9 25.8 25.7 25.5 25.3 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 129 126 124 123 123 124 123 120 119 118 116 115 112 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -53.3 -53.0 -53.5 -53.7 -54.2 -54.5 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.4 -0.1 0.4 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 40 41 42 41 39 39 35 33 27 26 27 26 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 17 16 13 14 12 12 9 6 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 32 27 14 -3 -15 -23 -49 -61 -74 -92 -110 -122 200 MB DIV 19 1 0 15 16 -13 17 -18 -11 -23 -48 -25 4 700-850 TADV 10 13 13 13 13 11 7 7 5 5 3 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 439 423 418 412 412 446 522 584 636 694 771 867 982 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.2 22.7 23.2 23.7 24.7 25.9 26.8 27.6 28.3 29.1 30.0 31.0 LONG(DEG W) 151.3 151.9 152.4 153.0 153.5 154.6 155.7 156.5 157.2 157.8 158.5 159.4 160.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 8 7 5 5 5 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 4 2 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -19. -23. -26. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -12. -18. -23. -31. -39. -46. -52. -55. -56. -55. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 12. 10. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -5. -4. -2. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -6. -5. -8. -9. -15. -20. -22. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -10. -20. -30. -37. -50. -56. -65. -69. -76. -81. -83. -86. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 21.7 151.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/07/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 41.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 704.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.02 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.72 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/07/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX