* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/07/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 115 113 107 102 91 79 71 62 57 54 51 46 V (KT) LAND 115 115 113 107 102 91 79 71 62 57 54 51 46 V (KT) LGEM 115 113 106 99 91 81 73 68 65 64 64 62 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 5 1 2 4 2 5 2 6 6 17 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 0 2 1 0 0 -3 0 2 4 7 10 SHEAR DIR 42 44 49 49 237 336 51 292 2 270 208 234 240 SST (C) 26.5 26.1 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.5 25.8 26.1 26.3 26.4 26.6 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 130 125 121 122 121 121 119 122 125 126 127 130 129 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 44 41 42 40 39 37 32 31 29 28 28 29 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 27 25 25 24 22 22 21 20 21 21 19 850 MB ENV VOR 40 39 40 43 44 63 56 47 26 28 38 45 41 200 MB DIV 24 -7 -20 0 18 4 12 3 -2 -1 23 11 -4 700-850 TADV -7 -10 -5 1 6 -3 5 -1 4 0 5 1 2 LAND (KM) 1746 1822 1904 2005 2081 1895 1618 1342 1097 895 735 542 330 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.3 19.7 20.1 20.5 21.1 21.5 21.6 21.6 21.6 21.6 21.6 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 129.1 130.3 131.5 132.9 134.2 136.7 139.4 142.1 144.5 146.5 148.1 150.1 152.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 13 13 12 13 12 10 8 8 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 2 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -13. -21. -29. -37. -44. -50. -54. -56. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 11. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -8. -7. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -8. -13. -24. -36. -44. -53. -58. -61. -64. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 18.9 129.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/07/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1120.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 47.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.23 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 0.4% 1.5% 0.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/07/18 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI=100 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX