* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/07/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 64 53 44 36 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 64 53 44 36 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 75 66 58 51 45 35 27 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 39 42 41 43 46 51 58 58 54 43 27 13 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 4 5 4 -1 0 -4 -2 1 0 5 2 SHEAR DIR 231 232 233 232 234 245 248 255 259 275 308 355 23 SST (C) 26.4 26.2 26.1 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.0 25.8 25.6 25.3 25.1 24.8 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 126 124 123 122 122 123 122 119 117 114 112 109 106 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.7 -54.5 -54.5 -54.9 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 40 42 41 39 39 36 33 30 25 27 28 27 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 18 16 15 13 12 11 7 5 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 20 11 -6 -5 -15 -36 -56 -74 -101 -121 -141 -132 200 MB DIV 3 3 16 7 -15 -2 6 -15 -29 -43 -63 -12 -6 700-850 TADV 12 13 13 13 11 6 4 1 1 4 2 6 3 LAND (KM) 452 440 432 436 453 512 572 652 730 818 914 1022 1134 LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.7 23.2 23.8 24.3 25.4 26.4 27.4 28.4 29.4 30.4 31.4 32.4 LONG(DEG W) 151.5 152.1 152.7 153.2 153.7 154.8 155.7 156.3 156.9 157.6 158.6 159.3 159.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 3 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -10. -15. -19. -27. -37. -47. -55. -61. -63. -59. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 12. 9. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -9. -9. -7. -5. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -15. -19. -22. -23. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -11. -22. -31. -39. -47. -56. -63. -75. -82. -86. -84. -86. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 22.2 151.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/07/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.08 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.76 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 626.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.71 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/07/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX