* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/07/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 106 101 96 91 79 72 64 59 57 51 49 43 V (KT) LAND 110 106 101 96 91 79 72 64 59 57 51 49 43 V (KT) LGEM 110 105 98 91 85 76 70 66 64 63 61 58 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 1 3 6 7 3 7 6 8 15 21 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 1 1 0 -1 -1 -3 0 3 3 7 8 SHEAR DIR 35 39 29 247 284 4 309 340 268 257 228 245 242 SST (C) 26.0 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.5 25.7 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 125 121 121 122 121 119 121 124 124 125 127 128 129 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 -52.6 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 41 40 40 37 36 33 31 30 29 30 30 31 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 23 24 23 22 22 21 21 22 19 20 17 850 MB ENV VOR 48 46 41 46 63 63 49 29 22 21 30 39 42 200 MB DIV 3 -15 -11 6 11 13 -4 -5 -9 13 10 -1 -8 700-850 TADV -11 -3 6 7 2 -6 4 -2 5 0 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1834 1924 2018 2086 1998 1732 1444 1192 983 792 608 420 220 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.8 20.1 20.6 21.0 21.5 21.6 21.8 21.9 22.1 22.0 21.8 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 130.5 131.8 133.0 134.4 135.7 138.3 141.1 143.6 145.7 147.7 149.6 151.6 153.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 13 13 13 13 12 11 9 9 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 4 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -12. -20. -27. -33. -40. -45. -49. -51. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 7. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -5. -9. -8. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -14. -19. -31. -38. -46. -51. -53. -59. -61. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 19.4 130.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/07/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1095.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 61.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.01 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/07/18 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 85 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX