* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/07/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 55 45 37 31 24 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 55 45 37 31 24 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 65 56 49 43 37 28 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 41 39 41 43 48 52 55 50 39 14 7 8 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 7 7 1 1 -2 -3 0 0 3 0 -6 SHEAR DIR 233 230 230 234 240 245 246 248 239 267 326 339 34 SST (C) 26.2 26.1 26.0 26.1 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.7 25.5 25.2 25.0 24.7 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 124 123 122 123 123 122 121 119 117 113 111 108 104 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.8 -54.3 -54.7 -55.1 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 42 41 40 40 38 36 30 24 26 29 30 33 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 18 16 14 12 13 14 13 11 9 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 29 13 -3 -4 -2 -20 -28 -44 -66 -100 -110 -112 -112 200 MB DIV 9 22 10 -9 -5 13 1 7 -23 -43 -5 0 19 700-850 TADV 15 14 14 16 15 9 7 4 4 2 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 425 424 427 443 471 551 609 678 772 870 967 1078 1205 LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.3 23.8 24.4 24.9 26.0 26.9 27.9 29.0 30.0 30.9 31.9 33.0 LONG(DEG W) 152.3 152.9 153.4 154.0 154.5 155.3 156.1 156.9 157.7 158.5 159.2 159.9 160.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 6 6 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -14. -21. -31. -41. -51. -53. -52. -47. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 14. 13. 10. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 9. 8. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -4. -4. -7. -9. -13. -16. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -10. -20. -28. -34. -41. -46. -50. -56. -57. -58. -59. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 22.7 152.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/07/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.16 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.89 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 541.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.22 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.56 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/07/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX