* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/07/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 93 88 84 78 72 67 62 59 57 57 52 49 V (KT) LAND 100 93 88 84 78 72 67 62 59 57 57 52 49 V (KT) LGEM 100 92 85 80 76 69 65 63 62 63 63 60 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 4 7 7 4 8 3 7 4 11 13 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 0 0 -1 -4 -3 0 3 7 6 8 SHEAR DIR 19 360 301 318 351 8 320 354 305 231 241 237 251 SST (C) 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.7 25.6 25.5 25.8 25.9 26.1 26.3 26.5 26.5 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 121 120 120 121 120 119 122 122 124 126 128 129 131 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 39 39 37 36 36 34 33 31 30 27 28 28 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 23 24 24 22 23 23 21 21 20 21 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR 46 44 46 63 60 53 36 6 7 12 22 34 47 200 MB DIV -12 -14 2 10 19 -4 5 6 8 12 0 0 -23 700-850 TADV -4 6 12 4 -3 2 -1 2 0 2 1 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1920 2017 2076 1998 1865 1600 1337 1106 893 696 512 318 118 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.3 20.7 21.0 21.3 21.7 21.9 22.0 22.2 22.1 21.9 21.4 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 131.8 133.1 134.4 135.7 137.0 139.6 142.2 144.5 146.7 148.7 150.6 152.5 154.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 10 10 9 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -15. -20. -26. -32. -36. -40. -42. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -6. -10. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -12. -16. -22. -28. -33. -38. -41. -43. -43. -48. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 19.9 131.8 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/07/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1038.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 63.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/07/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX