* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082018 09/07/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 42 46 51 57 62 64 61 59 55 54 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 42 46 51 57 62 64 61 59 55 54 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 39 44 50 58 63 61 55 48 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 13 9 7 6 5 3 9 19 21 28 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 9 11 9 8 7 6 6 12 12 9 0 2 SHEAR DIR 72 65 69 70 74 86 99 204 234 237 226 214 232 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.3 26.8 26.5 26.2 26.1 26.3 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 135 133 132 130 130 124 120 116 115 117 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 127 130 130 129 129 130 123 116 110 107 108 110 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -52.8 -53.3 -52.7 -53.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 6 6 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 69 69 71 74 72 73 71 71 69 65 57 55 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 22 25 26 24 26 27 28 27 27 25 25 850 MB ENV VOR 50 54 47 43 42 48 47 32 20 28 33 51 43 200 MB DIV 99 82 67 50 21 8 55 30 36 23 14 -3 27 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -11 -6 -2 0 0 10 12 25 21 5 5 LAND (KM) 162 219 253 352 461 711 1053 1418 1744 2018 2148 2098 2061 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.4 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.4 14.9 15.6 16.5 17.5 18.5 19.5 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 18.3 18.9 19.5 20.6 21.7 24.1 27.3 30.7 33.7 36.2 38.2 40.2 42.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 8 11 11 14 16 16 14 12 11 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 4 7 9 10 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 487 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 7. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 12. 16. 21. 27. 32. 34. 31. 29. 25. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.1 18.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 EIGHT 09/07/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.68 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 93.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.83 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.62 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.43 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 20.2% 16.6% 11.2% 0.0% 12.8% 12.5% 22.5% Logistic: 6.9% 16.6% 9.8% 7.3% 3.6% 7.6% 6.8% 4.6% Bayesian: 1.8% 6.9% 3.4% 0.5% 0.3% 2.3% 2.4% 3.3% Consensus: 4.9% 14.6% 9.9% 6.3% 1.3% 7.6% 7.2% 10.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 26.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 EIGHT 09/07/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 37 42 46 51 57 62 64 61 59 55 54 18HR AGO 30 29 32 37 41 46 52 57 59 56 54 50 49 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 35 40 46 51 53 50 48 44 43 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 29 35 40 42 39 37 33 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT