* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/07/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 91 86 82 77 72 65 64 61 57 54 47 39 V (KT) LAND 95 91 86 82 77 72 65 64 61 57 54 47 36 V (KT) LGEM 95 90 84 79 74 68 65 64 64 63 60 55 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 5 5 5 2 6 5 5 10 18 22 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 1 1 0 -1 -3 -1 4 6 6 5 4 SHEAR DIR 332 299 321 5 31 174 332 266 291 239 256 242 247 SST (C) 25.6 25.7 25.7 25.6 25.5 25.6 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 120 121 121 120 119 120 123 123 125 127 128 129 134 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -52.5 -52.0 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 39 39 38 37 34 34 29 28 24 25 26 30 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 21 22 21 22 20 21 21 20 19 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR 46 46 60 61 58 60 25 6 5 22 33 43 51 200 MB DIV -6 5 -1 9 6 0 9 1 7 4 -7 -3 -18 700-850 TADV 9 13 0 -3 0 3 -2 6 1 0 -6 -7 -2 LAND (KM) 2026 2081 2009 1870 1732 1468 1209 985 790 613 445 220 -5 LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.7 21.0 21.3 21.5 21.8 22.1 22.3 22.3 22.1 21.8 21.3 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 133.2 134.4 135.6 137.0 138.3 140.9 143.5 145.8 147.8 149.6 151.3 153.6 156.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 13 12 12 12 10 9 8 9 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3 4 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -17. -22. -28. -32. -35. -37. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -4. -6. -7. -11. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -13. -18. -23. -30. -31. -34. -38. -41. -48. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 20.3 133.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/07/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.85 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 974.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 54.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.13 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/07/18 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 93 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX