* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082018 09/08/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 41 50 56 60 59 60 55 52 50 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 41 50 56 60 59 60 55 52 50 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 38 43 49 53 55 53 48 43 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 7 3 6 5 4 8 15 16 17 24 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 12 12 14 9 3 3 5 6 9 6 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 86 75 80 116 110 133 179 223 222 237 233 231 220 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.5 26.3 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 134 132 131 128 126 120 118 115 116 117 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 128 131 129 128 127 125 117 113 109 108 108 109 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 7 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 68 70 71 69 69 69 68 69 69 62 57 50 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 24 25 22 26 27 28 27 29 26 25 25 850 MB ENV VOR 46 42 41 39 36 45 37 17 23 38 45 47 51 200 MB DIV 66 49 38 19 2 10 6 34 21 16 20 42 26 700-850 TADV 7 -2 0 0 5 15 12 17 17 13 17 8 10 LAND (KM) 130 194 262 375 498 784 1128 1454 1750 2023 2127 2123 2203 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.7 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.8 15.4 16.2 17.1 17.9 18.5 19.8 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 18.0 18.8 19.7 20.9 22.1 24.8 28.0 31.0 33.7 36.2 38.5 40.2 41.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 10 12 12 15 15 14 13 12 11 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 4 7 10 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 11.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 0. 3. 4. 5. 3. 5. 2. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 11. 20. 26. 30. 29. 30. 25. 22. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.5 18.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 EIGHT 09/08/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.84 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.04 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 107.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.82 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.62 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 20.6% 17.0% 11.1% 0.0% 12.8% 13.4% 23.3% Logistic: 5.7% 13.8% 10.2% 4.9% 1.8% 5.3% 4.7% 3.2% Bayesian: 1.1% 1.0% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 1.1% 4.0% 4.0% Consensus: 4.2% 11.8% 9.5% 5.4% 0.6% 6.4% 7.4% 10.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 33.0% 75.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 EIGHT 09/08/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 40 41 50 56 60 59 60 55 52 50 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 37 46 52 56 55 56 51 48 46 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 31 40 46 50 49 50 45 42 40 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 30 36 40 39 40 35 32 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT