* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/08/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 79 75 71 68 64 62 60 59 55 51 46 42 V (KT) LAND 85 79 75 71 68 64 62 60 59 55 51 46 42 V (KT) LGEM 85 79 73 69 66 62 61 62 63 61 59 54 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 4 2 1 6 5 10 7 16 17 21 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 0 0 -4 -4 0 2 3 6 4 9 SHEAR DIR 317 303 330 352 43 305 307 286 276 244 244 235 233 SST (C) 25.7 25.7 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.8 25.9 26.1 26.4 26.6 26.5 26.7 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 121 121 119 119 119 122 123 124 127 129 128 131 135 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 38 37 36 33 34 32 31 29 26 28 30 33 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 22 23 22 22 20 21 21 21 20 19 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 43 62 60 57 57 39 15 9 13 23 39 56 55 200 MB DIV 7 -3 -4 4 0 5 11 -2 2 -7 -7 -12 6 700-850 TADV 7 -1 0 0 1 -3 2 0 1 -2 -1 -2 0 LAND (KM) 2083 1988 1855 1717 1579 1316 1088 870 678 483 315 109 91 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.1 21.4 21.6 21.7 21.9 22.1 22.1 21.9 21.7 21.5 20.9 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 134.5 135.8 137.1 138.5 139.8 142.4 144.7 146.9 148.8 150.8 152.6 154.8 157.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 11 11 10 9 9 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 5 2 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -11. -15. -20. -23. -25. -27. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -5. -4. -2. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -3. -4. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -14. -17. -21. -23. -25. -26. -30. -34. -39. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 20.7 134.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/08/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 870.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 57.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/08/18 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 60 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX