* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/08/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 49 53 60 69 75 76 73 66 62 56 54 V (KT) LAND 40 44 49 53 60 69 75 76 73 66 62 56 54 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 48 53 57 65 71 73 71 66 61 57 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 7 8 9 6 8 5 15 14 19 22 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 7 7 4 2 5 2 7 11 12 6 8 2 SHEAR DIR 71 84 107 103 112 137 183 194 236 252 247 238 224 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.4 26.1 26.1 26.3 26.5 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 131 130 128 126 123 119 116 116 117 118 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 129 128 127 125 124 120 115 110 109 109 109 108 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -52.9 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.6 1.0 0.6 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 71 71 71 69 68 69 74 73 66 60 58 54 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 23 23 26 27 29 29 29 27 27 25 27 850 MB ENV VOR 39 38 41 36 36 46 29 27 25 34 46 36 36 200 MB DIV 32 6 -5 -4 12 26 27 46 -10 24 31 48 28 700-850 TADV 0 7 10 9 12 9 18 12 30 28 9 15 15 LAND (KM) 194 280 382 518 656 956 1302 1628 1914 2168 2047 2019 2099 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.0 14.2 14.5 14.7 15.2 15.9 16.6 17.6 18.3 18.9 19.9 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 18.9 19.9 21.0 22.3 23.6 26.4 29.6 32.6 35.2 37.7 40.2 41.9 42.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 12 13 13 15 15 14 13 12 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 3 5 8 10 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 20.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 2. 1. -2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 11. 11. 9. 6. 3. 1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 21. 29. 35. 36. 34. 26. 22. 16. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.7 18.9 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/08/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.68 8.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.76 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.04 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 3.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.76 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.47 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.78 2.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.0 28.4 to 141.4 0.53 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.6% 37.4% 25.6% 14.1% 11.7% 16.9% 21.3% 0.0% Logistic: 12.9% 22.6% 19.6% 7.4% 3.0% 10.7% 7.4% 5.0% Bayesian: 3.0% 4.3% 5.5% 0.8% 0.4% 8.1% 1.7% 8.2% Consensus: 8.5% 21.4% 16.9% 7.4% 5.0% 11.9% 10.1% 4.4% DTOPS: 6.0% 34.0% 16.0% 12.0% 6.0% 16.0% 38.0% 61.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/08/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 44 49 53 60 69 75 76 73 66 62 56 54 18HR AGO 40 39 44 48 55 64 70 71 68 61 57 51 49 12HR AGO 40 37 36 40 47 56 62 63 60 53 49 43 41 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 37 46 52 53 50 43 39 33 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT