* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/08/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 74 70 67 66 63 62 61 63 57 53 49 44 V (KT) LAND 80 74 70 67 66 63 62 61 63 57 53 49 44 V (KT) LGEM 80 74 69 65 63 61 61 63 64 62 58 52 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 4 2 0 6 2 6 11 15 15 17 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -1 -1 -5 0 5 4 6 9 8 13 SHEAR DIR 308 334 356 52 162 317 288 265 250 250 241 252 231 SST (C) 25.7 25.6 25.5 25.5 25.6 26.0 26.2 26.3 26.5 26.6 26.7 27.0 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 121 120 119 119 120 124 125 126 128 130 131 134 140 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -51.9 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 36 34 32 32 32 29 28 25 25 28 32 37 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 21 21 21 20 21 20 21 19 17 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 57 56 52 52 48 20 8 12 19 28 50 58 62 200 MB DIV -1 -6 4 -2 1 8 6 13 -6 -9 -9 -20 2 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 1 0 -4 3 0 0 -4 -4 -2 -6 LAND (KM) 1978 1839 1701 1563 1427 1172 940 742 575 380 142 10 234 LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.3 21.5 21.7 21.8 21.8 21.8 21.8 21.7 21.3 20.5 19.9 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 135.9 137.3 138.6 140.0 141.3 143.8 146.1 148.1 149.8 151.7 153.9 156.1 158.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 8 10 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 1 5 8 9 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18. -20. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. 0. -3. -6. -9. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -13. -14. -17. -18. -19. -17. -23. -27. -31. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 21.1 135.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/08/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.69 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 832.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 66.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/08/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX