* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/08/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 49 55 63 77 85 86 82 75 68 62 55 V (KT) LAND 40 44 49 55 63 77 85 86 82 75 68 62 55 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 46 50 56 67 76 80 79 73 66 60 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 10 10 4 6 2 7 12 16 19 28 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 5 4 7 3 8 7 8 5 5 6 2 SHEAR DIR 73 82 81 84 100 122 133 194 245 228 237 224 215 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.5 26.9 26.5 26.3 26.2 26.3 26.5 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 136 135 134 132 125 120 118 116 117 119 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 132 133 134 133 131 123 117 112 109 108 110 111 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 71 72 71 69 71 71 71 72 69 62 56 50 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 22 24 26 28 30 29 28 27 25 25 24 850 MB ENV VOR 45 47 42 44 47 45 29 28 27 29 29 28 32 200 MB DIV 17 4 2 15 26 29 28 17 -8 33 29 23 9 700-850 TADV 5 6 8 6 10 8 12 10 16 20 9 14 16 LAND (KM) 306 409 516 646 780 1086 1418 1732 2015 2109 2065 2094 2219 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.8 14.0 14.6 15.4 16.4 17.2 18.2 19.1 20.6 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 20.0 21.1 22.1 23.4 24.7 27.6 30.7 33.6 36.2 38.4 40.2 41.7 42.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 13 13 15 15 14 12 11 10 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 7 10 8 10 8 5 3 0 0 0 1 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 30.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 8. 6. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 6. 5. 2. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 2. 4. 7. 14. 17. 16. 13. 9. 5. 1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 23. 37. 45. 46. 42. 35. 28. 22. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.5 20.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/08/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 7.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.77 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.05 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.84 3.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.66 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.47 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 137.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.79 2.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.57 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 32.2% 22.3% 13.9% 11.6% 18.1% 19.6% 22.3% Logistic: 12.9% 25.7% 17.9% 9.3% 6.7% 16.4% 12.4% 8.9% Bayesian: 2.8% 35.5% 12.8% 1.3% 0.7% 8.0% 4.5% 9.6% Consensus: 7.9% 31.2% 17.7% 8.2% 6.3% 14.2% 12.2% 13.6% DTOPS: 5.0% 26.0% 11.0% 5.0% 3.0% 11.0% 32.0% 7.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/08/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 6( 6) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 44 49 55 63 77 85 86 82 75 68 62 55 18HR AGO 40 39 44 50 58 72 80 81 77 70 63 57 50 12HR AGO 40 37 36 42 50 64 72 73 69 62 55 49 42 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 38 52 60 61 57 50 43 37 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT