* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/08/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 69 65 63 60 58 56 53 52 48 44 37 32 V (KT) LAND 75 69 65 63 60 58 56 53 52 48 44 38 32 V (KT) LGEM 75 70 66 63 61 59 60 60 60 57 53 47 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 3 2 7 6 7 10 14 15 17 21 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -3 -5 -2 1 3 5 9 7 10 9 SHEAR DIR 340 11 21 308 311 347 291 256 263 253 257 244 244 SST (C) 25.6 25.5 25.5 25.7 25.9 26.1 26.3 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.9 27.4 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 120 119 119 121 123 125 126 128 129 130 134 139 143 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -52.5 -52.6 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 35 33 33 33 31 30 26 25 29 31 36 36 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 21 21 20 20 20 18 19 17 15 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR 49 46 47 46 31 10 10 24 34 43 58 57 66 200 MB DIV 2 10 -4 0 4 13 6 16 -16 -10 -22 -4 -12 700-850 TADV -4 -2 4 1 -4 1 0 0 -2 -4 -1 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 1834 1690 1547 1409 1272 1040 818 628 462 254 12 173 323 LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.5 21.6 21.7 21.7 21.8 21.7 21.6 21.3 20.8 20.1 19.4 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 137.3 138.7 140.1 141.5 142.8 145.1 147.3 149.2 150.8 152.8 155.2 157.7 160.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 10 10 8 9 11 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 13 9 31 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -15. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -4. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -12. -15. -17. -19. -22. -23. -27. -31. -38. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 21.3 137.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/08/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.05 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.76 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 783.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 44.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.29 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/08/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX