* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/08/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 54 61 67 78 87 85 79 74 69 60 51 V (KT) LAND 45 49 54 61 67 78 87 85 79 74 69 60 51 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 52 56 62 72 80 83 79 71 64 57 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 9 6 8 6 2 10 12 19 23 36 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 9 5 2 3 5 8 10 11 5 9 0 0 SHEAR DIR 68 76 77 89 128 78 254 231 222 218 212 215 202 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.3 26.8 26.5 26.3 26.2 26.3 26.5 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 136 135 134 129 124 120 117 116 117 119 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 134 135 135 134 128 121 114 111 108 108 110 112 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -52.5 -53.2 -52.4 -53.0 -52.4 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 72 70 71 71 72 74 73 68 65 61 55 47 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 25 27 26 27 30 29 26 27 27 25 23 850 MB ENV VOR 52 51 52 50 53 38 30 24 29 39 34 44 26 200 MB DIV 23 4 21 43 43 0 31 17 32 44 41 29 16 700-850 TADV 1 6 3 2 5 8 4 16 22 16 11 18 20 LAND (KM) 414 537 662 798 938 1257 1568 1850 2101 2084 2063 2146 2311 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.9 14.2 14.8 15.6 16.5 17.3 18.4 19.5 21.3 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 21.1 22.3 23.5 24.8 26.2 29.2 32.1 34.7 37.0 39.0 40.7 41.9 42.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 14 14 14 14 12 12 10 10 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 10 7 9 8 5 11 1 0 0 0 1 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 465 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 28.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 9. 7. 4. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 2. -1. 0. -1. -5. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 4. 7. 13. 16. 15. 13. 9. 5. 1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 16. 22. 33. 42. 40. 34. 29. 24. 15. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.5 21.1 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/08/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 7.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.84 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.05 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.84 3.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.60 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 157.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.77 2.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.1 28.4 to 141.4 0.54 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.2% 34.0% 23.2% 14.9% 12.1% 21.3% 25.0% 21.3% Logistic: 18.2% 36.5% 26.1% 20.4% 16.2% 19.4% 15.8% 5.7% Bayesian: 5.1% 43.4% 15.2% 2.5% 2.3% 9.0% 6.2% 2.4% Consensus: 10.5% 38.0% 21.5% 12.6% 10.2% 16.5% 15.7% 9.8% DTOPS: 11.0% 44.0% 27.0% 19.0% 13.0% 32.0% 50.0% 24.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/08/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 6( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 1( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 49 54 61 67 78 87 85 79 74 69 60 51 18HR AGO 45 44 49 56 62 73 82 80 74 69 64 55 46 12HR AGO 45 42 41 48 54 65 74 72 66 61 56 47 38 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 41 52 61 59 53 48 43 34 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT