* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/08/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 72 69 66 64 62 58 55 49 44 37 30 26 V (KT) LAND 75 72 69 66 64 62 58 55 49 44 37 31 27 V (KT) LGEM 75 72 69 66 64 62 61 59 57 52 47 42 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 3 7 10 3 6 12 18 19 27 33 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -2 -6 -5 0 2 6 8 9 10 3 3 SHEAR DIR 9 1 316 320 344 339 275 242 265 263 252 255 268 SST (C) 25.4 25.5 25.6 25.8 26.0 26.1 26.3 26.6 26.6 26.7 27.1 27.6 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 118 119 120 122 124 124 126 129 130 131 136 141 145 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.5 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -52.6 -52.8 -53.3 -53.8 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 33 34 33 31 30 29 28 29 32 34 38 40 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 21 19 19 19 19 17 15 13 11 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 43 50 50 29 20 5 13 26 28 40 55 61 58 200 MB DIV 2 -4 -3 0 13 5 7 -5 -6 -20 -30 -1 -1 700-850 TADV -1 4 2 -6 -4 3 1 -1 -5 -5 -2 -2 -7 LAND (KM) 1691 1549 1408 1280 1152 933 742 547 348 114 85 240 378 LAT (DEG N) 21.6 21.8 21.9 21.9 21.8 21.9 21.8 21.5 21.2 20.6 20.0 19.4 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 138.7 140.1 141.5 142.8 144.0 146.2 148.1 150.0 152.0 154.3 156.9 159.3 161.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 11 10 8 9 11 12 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 9 8 10 25 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -10. -15. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -17. -20. -26. -31. -38. -45. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 21.6 138.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/08/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.05 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.76 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 786.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 50.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/08/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX