* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN EP182018 09/08/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 36 40 45 46 48 46 45 41 35 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 36 40 45 46 48 46 45 41 35 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 32 33 32 31 29 27 26 24 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 17 16 13 16 7 9 8 6 2 6 12 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 5 6 8 4 1 0 -4 0 4 7 SHEAR DIR 43 60 67 64 67 45 28 53 54 176 222 249 232 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.4 27.3 26.6 25.8 24.9 23.8 23.4 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 155 154 155 147 136 129 121 111 100 95 93 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 66 62 60 60 57 54 50 40 40 34 31 31 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 20 20 23 23 24 23 23 21 20 19 16 850 MB ENV VOR 62 75 91 85 79 84 74 75 92 77 66 63 68 200 MB DIV 52 76 56 34 28 50 -20 -46 -14 -2 11 18 4 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -3 -2 -4 0 -1 -1 -3 -2 1 1 5 LAND (KM) 1068 1068 1075 1054 1033 998 1029 1097 1208 1303 1377 1458 1507 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.0 16.5 17.1 17.6 18.9 19.9 20.6 21.1 21.8 22.9 23.6 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 116.5 117.1 117.7 118.2 118.6 119.6 120.8 122.4 124.4 126.1 127.6 128.8 130.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 8 7 10 21 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 474 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 9. 15. 21. 24. 25. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 5. 4. 2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 16. 18. 16. 15. 11. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.5 116.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182018 EIGHTEEN 09/08/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.16 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.43 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.25 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 148.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.71 -2.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.98 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 12.5% 9.1% 4.8% 0.0% 11.2% 14.0% 8.2% Logistic: 0.4% 3.3% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 5.3% 3.4% 1.8% 0.0% 4.0% 4.8% 3.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 13.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182018 EIGHTEEN 09/08/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX