* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/09/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 62 69 78 94 102 101 97 88 78 69 63 V (KT) LAND 50 56 62 69 78 94 102 101 97 88 78 69 63 V (KT) LGEM 50 55 60 66 72 87 95 95 88 79 69 61 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 9 7 9 4 3 10 13 20 26 26 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 5 1 2 4 3 6 9 9 5 3 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 73 63 68 91 70 81 173 226 229 217 216 211 206 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.3 26.8 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 138 137 136 129 123 119 117 116 117 119 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 137 138 137 136 128 120 114 110 108 108 109 113 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 71 72 71 72 72 71 66 63 60 54 51 44 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 25 25 27 30 32 31 32 32 30 29 29 850 MB ENV VOR 55 59 58 54 50 50 33 37 47 52 51 58 77 200 MB DIV 21 29 37 40 23 42 46 40 37 57 49 15 2 700-850 TADV 6 2 0 -2 0 -2 -1 7 12 4 10 14 10 LAND (KM) 537 668 802 945 1091 1397 1697 1968 2090 2055 2054 2153 2325 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.7 14.0 14.6 15.6 16.6 17.6 18.6 19.7 21.5 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 22.2 23.5 24.8 26.2 27.6 30.5 33.3 35.8 38.0 39.7 41.1 42.1 42.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 14 14 14 13 13 10 9 9 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 7 8 7 5 6 8 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 38.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 9. 9. 9. 7. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 2. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 2. 5. 9. 19. 23. 22. 18. 13. 7. 2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 19. 28. 44. 52. 51. 47. 38. 28. 19. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 13.2 22.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/09/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.68 9.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.80 5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.04 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 5.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.74 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 175.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.75 3.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.51 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 4.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 32% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 37% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.7% 44.8% 29.7% 19.8% 13.5% 32.3% 37.4% 21.7% Logistic: 24.6% 42.8% 30.5% 19.9% 16.0% 23.8% 15.5% 3.0% Bayesian: 15.2% 47.8% 18.0% 4.3% 3.9% 11.7% 3.6% 2.8% Consensus: 17.8% 45.2% 26.1% 14.7% 11.1% 22.6% 18.8% 9.2% DTOPS: 22.0% 62.0% 48.0% 24.0% 13.0% 57.0% 71.0% 3.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/09/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 6( 6) 16( 21) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 56 62 69 78 94 102 101 97 88 78 69 63 18HR AGO 50 49 55 62 71 87 95 94 90 81 71 62 56 12HR AGO 50 47 46 53 62 78 86 85 81 72 62 53 47 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 49 65 73 72 68 59 49 40 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT