* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN EP182018 09/09/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 31 32 32 31 31 30 26 22 18 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 31 32 32 31 31 30 26 22 18 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 29 28 26 23 21 18 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 16 17 15 9 11 7 2 5 11 17 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 4 5 5 4 0 1 1 -2 0 -2 4 SHEAR DIR 57 69 67 59 70 63 38 34 42 251 236 242 244 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.9 27.8 27.0 26.4 25.5 24.6 23.9 23.7 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 155 155 153 142 133 127 118 109 101 98 99 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 2 700-500 MB RH 62 62 61 59 59 54 47 42 37 35 33 34 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 21 20 21 20 19 18 16 15 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 69 84 77 73 82 68 71 76 78 60 58 57 53 200 MB DIV 81 72 48 33 44 3 -20 -15 -11 -15 11 0 -3 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -4 -6 -2 -1 0 -4 0 -3 1 2 0 LAND (KM) 1069 1070 1065 1041 1024 1027 1105 1198 1322 1462 1587 1652 1697 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.4 16.9 17.5 18.1 19.4 20.1 20.6 21.1 21.8 22.6 23.2 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 117.0 117.6 118.1 118.6 119.1 120.4 121.9 123.8 125.8 127.9 129.7 131.2 132.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 9 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 11 8 7 9 12 26 5 0 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 463 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 10. 15. 21. 24. 25. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -4. -8. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.9 117.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182018 EIGHTEEN 09/09/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.16 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.47 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.31 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 154.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.70 -2.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.97 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 14.3% 10.2% 5.6% 0.0% 11.5% 13.5% 8.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 5.0% 3.5% 1.9% 0.0% 3.9% 4.5% 2.8% DTOPS: 2.0% 7.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182018 EIGHTEEN 09/09/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX