* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/09/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 67 73 81 92 97 94 89 80 72 65 58 V (KT) LAND 55 61 67 73 81 92 97 94 89 80 72 65 58 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 66 72 78 87 91 89 82 73 64 56 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 7 8 11 8 4 7 16 22 31 34 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 4 4 1 2 6 11 7 12 6 5 -3 SHEAR DIR 66 64 70 99 88 67 203 249 219 219 219 206 210 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.1 26.8 26.5 26.3 26.3 26.4 26.6 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 138 137 134 127 123 119 116 117 117 119 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 139 138 137 134 124 119 112 109 108 108 108 110 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -52.4 -53.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.2 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 72 71 71 73 74 71 68 65 59 54 47 39 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 27 28 31 31 31 31 30 28 28 28 26 850 MB ENV VOR 65 66 57 54 47 41 31 39 55 60 65 59 84 200 MB DIV 48 58 58 38 25 54 10 42 50 62 28 15 21 700-850 TADV 2 -2 -5 -1 2 -2 0 7 5 7 13 11 7 LAND (KM) 664 794 927 1072 1218 1515 1804 2042 2075 2072 2082 2156 2301 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.8 15.6 16.5 17.6 18.8 20.1 21.6 23.4 LONG(DEG W) 23.4 24.7 26.0 27.4 28.8 31.6 34.3 36.5 38.2 39.7 41.2 42.2 42.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 14 14 14 13 10 9 10 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 7 8 6 5 10 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 490 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 26.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. -2. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 6. 12. 15. 14. 12. 8. 5. 1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 18. 26. 37. 42. 39. 34. 25. 17. 10. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 13.1 23.4 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/09/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.68 8.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.77 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.05 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 3.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.87 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 188.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.73 2.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.47 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.6% 38.0% 24.5% 16.7% 12.5% 27.1% 23.8% 19.6% Logistic: 15.5% 32.9% 19.0% 11.9% 10.4% 16.5% 12.2% 3.1% Bayesian: 15.4% 49.5% 17.8% 4.4% 6.3% 16.2% 1.0% 0.8% Consensus: 13.2% 40.1% 20.4% 11.0% 9.7% 20.0% 12.4% 7.8% DTOPS: 19.0% 50.0% 34.0% 23.0% 12.0% 21.0% 32.0% 10.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/09/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 8( 11) 13( 22) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 61 67 73 81 92 97 94 89 80 72 65 58 18HR AGO 55 54 60 66 74 85 90 87 82 73 65 58 51 12HR AGO 55 52 51 57 65 76 81 78 73 64 56 49 42 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 53 64 69 66 61 52 44 37 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT