* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/09/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 67 64 63 63 60 56 52 49 40 35 27 23 V (KT) LAND 70 67 64 63 63 60 56 52 49 40 35 27 23 V (KT) LGEM 70 67 65 63 62 60 59 58 55 49 44 39 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 9 10 6 3 8 11 18 24 27 34 35 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -3 0 1 0 8 7 7 10 3 4 1 SHEAR DIR 317 327 346 358 244 269 254 269 264 254 264 281 272 SST (C) 25.7 25.9 25.9 26.0 26.1 26.3 26.5 26.5 26.7 27.1 27.7 28.0 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 121 123 123 124 125 126 128 129 131 136 142 145 147 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -53.3 -54.0 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 31 31 30 28 27 27 28 30 33 39 38 40 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 20 20 19 18 17 17 12 11 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 45 34 23 13 11 18 26 36 48 59 69 69 82 200 MB DIV -1 11 20 7 -3 10 -8 -7 -10 -18 -13 -22 -5 700-850 TADV 1 -7 -6 2 6 1 1 -3 -1 -3 -8 -6 0 LAND (KM) 1376 1250 1126 1011 896 692 515 318 100 104 234 387 604 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 21.9 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 21.8 21.4 20.8 20.2 19.8 19.5 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 141.8 143.1 144.3 145.5 146.6 148.7 150.5 152.5 154.8 157.3 159.8 162.4 164.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 10 9 9 11 12 12 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 7 5 11 18 39 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. -7. -10. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -11. -12. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -7. -7. -10. -14. -18. -21. -30. -35. -43. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 21.8 141.8 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/09/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.12 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 793.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 61.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.01 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.57 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/09/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX