* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAUL EP182018 09/09/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 35 35 33 31 28 28 26 24 18 17 V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 35 35 33 31 28 28 26 24 18 17 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 36 35 32 28 24 21 18 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 17 12 12 7 4 1 4 8 14 19 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 4 6 3 3 2 6 1 4 1 4 6 SHEAR DIR 67 67 69 82 90 44 41 162 249 230 234 239 242 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.2 26.8 26.0 25.1 24.4 23.8 23.5 23.4 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 154 151 146 132 123 114 106 100 96 94 95 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 0.0 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 3 3 2 2 1 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 62 60 59 59 55 52 43 38 33 32 31 34 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 19 17 18 17 15 13 12 10 8 7 8 850 MB ENV VOR 74 67 65 75 69 54 62 65 57 35 50 43 46 200 MB DIV 57 41 38 32 8 -7 -15 -9 -22 3 1 13 1 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -5 0 0 2 1 1 0 2 1 2 2 LAND (KM) 1021 1004 985 969 961 1002 1077 1184 1318 1452 1573 1610 1646 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.4 18.0 18.7 19.3 20.5 21.2 21.8 22.3 22.9 23.4 23.9 24.2 LONG(DEG W) 117.3 117.9 118.4 119.0 119.5 120.9 122.8 124.7 126.6 128.4 130.2 131.5 132.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 12 14 15 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 9. 14. 17. 18. 19. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -7. -9. -11. -17. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.8 117.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182018 PAUL 09/09/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.25 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.09 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.36 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 206.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.64 -2.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.96 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 18.9% 11.7% 10.8% 6.4% 13.8% 15.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 6.5% 4.0% 3.6% 2.1% 4.6% 5.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182018 PAUL 09/09/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX