* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/09/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 64 70 74 83 85 82 80 74 67 60 54 V (KT) LAND 55 59 64 70 74 83 85 82 80 74 67 60 54 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 63 68 72 78 81 79 72 64 57 49 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 9 12 12 4 4 11 20 26 29 38 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 3 0 0 5 8 8 7 6 6 5 2 SHEAR DIR 59 71 82 83 73 52 243 213 215 198 198 195 203 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.0 26.7 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.5 26.8 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 137 135 131 125 121 118 117 117 119 123 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 138 137 135 130 122 116 111 109 108 110 113 116 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 71 69 71 72 68 67 67 62 53 48 47 48 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 28 28 32 31 32 32 30 31 29 27 26 25 850 MB ENV VOR 68 60 56 45 41 35 28 45 55 70 73 59 20 200 MB DIV 53 56 43 29 21 43 26 23 21 54 40 31 43 700-850 TADV -1 -7 -4 -1 -3 0 3 5 7 9 15 32 30 LAND (KM) 765 902 1041 1197 1356 1664 1911 2089 2073 2122 2191 2366 2450 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.5 13.7 14.1 14.4 15.1 15.8 16.8 18.1 19.7 21.4 23.7 26.4 LONG(DEG W) 24.4 25.8 27.1 28.6 30.1 33.0 35.3 37.2 38.8 40.1 41.3 42.0 42.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 15 15 13 11 10 10 10 11 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 7 4 4 9 10 4 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 16.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 6. 6. 5. 2. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 2. -1. -4. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 3. 1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 19. 28. 30. 27. 25. 19. 12. 5. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 13.2 24.4 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/09/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 5.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.70 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.04 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.87 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 213.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.71 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.5 28.4 to 141.4 0.46 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 21.1% 17.2% 12.7% 10.6% 14.6% 13.9% 0.0% Logistic: 5.2% 15.0% 6.9% 3.1% 2.6% 5.2% 5.2% 0.8% Bayesian: 3.6% 25.4% 6.3% 0.9% 0.7% 6.2% 1.7% 0.1% Consensus: 5.2% 20.5% 10.1% 5.6% 4.7% 8.7% 6.9% 0.3% DTOPS: 11.0% 29.0% 18.0% 14.0% 8.0% 7.0% 2.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/09/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 5( 5) 9( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 59 64 70 74 83 85 82 80 74 67 60 54 18HR AGO 55 54 59 65 69 78 80 77 75 69 62 55 49 12HR AGO 55 52 51 57 61 70 72 69 67 61 54 47 41 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 49 58 60 57 55 49 42 35 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT