* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAUL EP182018 09/09/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 34 32 31 27 23 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 35 34 32 31 27 23 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 35 33 29 25 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 20 18 17 12 9 6 1 3 6 11 19 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 4 3 3 2 3 9 4 6 4 11 9 SHEAR DIR 62 71 82 90 85 59 58 189 289 235 237 236 240 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.6 28.1 27.3 26.2 25.4 24.5 23.8 23.5 23.4 23.3 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 150 145 137 125 117 108 100 96 94 93 93 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 61 58 58 56 54 45 40 34 33 31 33 34 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 17 17 14 12 10 8 6 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 72 74 77 73 56 57 65 65 45 43 40 28 24 200 MB DIV 43 31 28 10 -12 -12 -26 -14 0 9 3 6 25 700-850 TADV -3 -3 0 1 0 1 0 3 -2 3 1 2 2 LAND (KM) 988 964 946 950 965 1014 1109 1238 1368 1486 1534 1552 1562 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.2 18.8 19.5 20.1 21.1 21.7 22.3 22.9 23.4 23.7 24.2 24.8 LONG(DEG W) 117.9 118.4 118.8 119.5 120.2 121.8 123.7 125.7 127.5 129.0 130.0 131.0 131.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 6 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 9 12 12 11 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 9. 13. 16. 17. 17. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -13. -17. -19. -20. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -12. -17. -19. -20. -23. -26. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.6 117.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182018 PAUL 09/09/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 3.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.11 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.08 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.28 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.29 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 228.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.61 -1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.90 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 11.5% 8.8% 4.7% 0.0% 9.7% 11.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 3.9% 2.9% 1.6% 0.0% 3.3% 3.8% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182018 PAUL 09/09/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX