* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/09/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 70 75 80 83 91 90 86 79 73 64 57 54 V (KT) LAND 65 70 75 80 83 91 90 86 79 73 64 57 54 V (KT) LGEM 65 70 75 79 83 89 88 80 71 63 56 49 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 8 10 9 0 9 15 17 21 34 42 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 0 -1 0 7 8 3 7 8 8 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 74 71 85 59 52 127 206 207 211 210 199 205 211 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.6 26.4 26.2 26.3 26.5 27.0 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 135 133 129 125 120 117 115 117 120 126 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 138 135 132 127 121 114 110 107 109 111 115 118 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -52.4 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.0 -52.3 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 68 68 71 68 68 67 64 58 52 50 48 49 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 30 32 30 33 33 32 29 29 26 25 24 850 MB ENV VOR 72 64 57 50 42 27 28 41 55 69 70 74 69 200 MB DIV 54 51 50 41 31 10 15 13 53 19 34 25 39 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -1 -6 -7 2 6 7 3 6 18 27 23 LAND (KM) 878 1021 1167 1320 1473 1750 1987 2073 2083 2138 2240 2423 2335 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.5 15.1 16.1 17.1 18.3 19.9 22.0 24.5 27.3 LONG(DEG W) 25.5 26.9 28.3 29.7 31.2 33.8 36.0 37.7 38.9 40.1 41.4 42.4 43.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 14 14 14 12 10 9 9 11 13 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 8 11 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 13.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 1. 3. 2. 0. -3. -4. -9. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 18. 26. 25. 21. 14. 8. -1. -8. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 13.3 25.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/09/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.68 6.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.76 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.04 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 267.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.65 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.36 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 25.9% 19.1% 15.4% 12.6% 18.1% 13.6% 0.0% Logistic: 9.0% 17.9% 9.6% 4.4% 2.8% 3.7% 5.1% 0.5% Bayesian: 14.6% 48.9% 17.7% 5.2% 5.0% 13.7% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 10.7% 30.9% 15.5% 8.3% 6.8% 11.8% 6.5% 0.2% DTOPS: 37.0% 46.0% 34.0% 32.0% 26.0% 14.0% 3.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/09/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 5( 7) 9( 15) 12( 25) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 1( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 70 75 80 83 91 90 86 79 73 64 57 54 18HR AGO 65 64 69 74 77 85 84 80 73 67 58 51 48 12HR AGO 65 62 61 66 69 77 76 72 65 59 50 43 40 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 58 66 65 61 54 48 39 32 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT