* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/09/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 63 62 63 60 58 53 48 39 33 27 22 V (KT) LAND 65 63 63 62 63 60 58 53 48 38 33 27 22 V (KT) LGEM 65 63 62 61 60 60 60 59 55 49 44 40 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 8 9 7 10 15 20 26 36 38 39 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -1 0 -2 1 7 6 11 4 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 341 347 287 304 293 263 254 255 263 266 266 260 258 SST (C) 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.6 26.6 26.8 27.1 27.6 28.0 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 125 126 127 129 130 132 135 140 145 146 146 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -53.1 -53.4 -53.8 -54.1 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 8 8 9 8 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 28 27 27 26 27 29 31 33 36 38 43 43 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 20 19 19 17 17 15 14 11 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 19 16 21 16 23 37 42 58 60 63 62 65 67 200 MB DIV 16 12 1 -1 -11 -12 9 -8 -19 -24 -19 12 14 700-850 TADV -2 2 3 3 1 -1 0 -1 0 -8 -7 -2 1 LAND (KM) 1099 988 877 778 680 514 295 76 67 206 333 513 736 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.4 20.9 20.4 20.0 19.6 19.3 19.3 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 144.5 145.6 146.7 147.7 148.7 150.3 152.4 154.6 156.7 159.0 161.3 163.8 166.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 9 8 9 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 2 2 2 2 1 13 10 12 29 29 33 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -7. -11. -15. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -11. -11. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -3. -2. -5. -7. -12. -17. -26. -32. -38. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 21.7 144.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/09/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.19 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.89 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 746.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 62.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.7% 1.0% 0.5% 0.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/09/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX