* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/10/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 81 86 87 88 89 84 79 73 68 60 56 48 V (KT) LAND 75 81 86 87 88 89 84 79 73 68 60 56 48 V (KT) LGEM 75 83 89 93 93 91 84 76 67 59 52 47 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 10 9 8 6 10 13 15 18 33 43 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -1 0 0 4 5 7 13 14 10 5 -1 SHEAR DIR 62 52 42 65 110 175 199 219 200 211 203 213 218 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.5 26.3 26.2 26.3 26.5 26.9 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 133 129 126 122 119 116 115 117 120 125 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 134 131 126 123 117 112 108 106 109 111 116 119 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.1 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -52.5 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 67 69 68 70 69 69 64 57 54 52 49 52 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 31 34 31 32 34 31 31 29 29 26 25 22 850 MB ENV VOR 67 61 55 51 42 35 38 53 70 65 55 63 47 200 MB DIV 55 56 69 52 19 25 -8 4 49 26 25 29 46 700-850 TADV -5 -2 -5 -6 1 6 13 8 3 9 22 24 27 LAND (KM) 988 1129 1271 1408 1547 1804 2020 2097 2110 2203 2354 2505 2184 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.0 14.2 14.6 14.9 15.6 16.4 17.5 18.7 20.5 22.8 25.8 29.3 LONG(DEG W) 26.6 27.9 29.3 30.6 31.9 34.3 36.3 37.8 39.0 39.9 40.7 41.2 41.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 11 10 9 9 11 13 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 3 7 11 8 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -3. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 1. 1. 3. 0. -1. -4. -5. -10. -11. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 12. 13. 14. 9. 4. -2. -7. -15. -19. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 13.7 26.6 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/10/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.79 7.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.77 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.04 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 321.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.60 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.23 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.37 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.4% 23.1% 18.8% 13.8% 11.8% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.8% 14.3% 6.6% 2.0% 1.2% 3.4% 4.4% 0.4% Bayesian: 31.2% 40.7% 14.3% 3.2% 1.9% 3.0% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 16.5% 26.1% 13.2% 6.3% 5.0% 6.8% 1.5% 0.1% DTOPS: 43.0% 41.0% 35.0% 15.0% 8.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/10/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 10( 15) 11( 24) 11( 32) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 81 86 87 88 89 84 79 73 68 60 56 48 18HR AGO 75 74 79 80 81 82 77 72 66 61 53 49 41 12HR AGO 75 72 71 72 73 74 69 64 58 53 45 41 33 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 66 67 62 57 51 46 38 34 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 75 81 86 77 71 67 62 57 51 46 38 34 26